Attention-Inspired Defeat Syndrome

Can we "preview" games we haven't decided to "view" yet... Although I take solace in the fact that EPL Fans review games they watched youtube highlights of, and generally wax eloquent about teams they've only read about in The Sun... (not the celestial furnace, the London Deccan Chronicle), I'm still going to cautiously call this post the El-Clasico pre-perhapsview. But why Narzi you ask! Why would I not watch possibly the most evenly matched game of the season? OK its possible you were not asking that, being too busy trying to figure out where perhaps ends and view begins in that word (there I've given it away now...), but unfortunately irrespective of how exciting this game might be, I can't help feeling that old familiar feeling of responsibility for the result based on my perhapsview.

I've never seen Sampras lose a game in a grandslam. I've seen him lose his serve, lose his set, lose his nerve, and even lose his hair, but never a match. But he obviously did and has lost, all games I somehow wasn't able to catch, which drove me to the conclusion that his fate was intrinsically tied in with my perhapsviewship... Neither is that a word, nor is that a condition worthy of studying, apart from the phenomenon that I'm quite aware almost everyone has some similar viewship belief. Unfortunately, Valencia seem to be anti-Sampras this year, I've seen ALL 8 of their draws/losses, and the only 3 games this season I Haven't seen were victories. Which brings me to tonight's pre-Clasico conundrum.

I've seen 12 Barca games this season, their 1 loss, their 3 draws, and 8 of their 11 wins. Conditional Probability of me having seen the game, given that they don't win = 1. On the other hand, I've seen 9 RM Games and they've won 8 and drawn 1. Conditional Probability of them not winning given I watch the game is 1/9 by 9/14 = .17. The same number for Barca is .41. So P(Barca not winning tonight) = .41*P(me watching), so to at least match RM's possible loss of .17, my P(Watching) needs to be .17/.41 = .41, and since 1 Dolo has a 50% chance of knocking you out for the night and my conditional probability of watching the game given I am awake = 1, I've healthily dosed myself with 1.22 Dolos. Oh wait...that wasn't for Dolo 650, Dolo 650's chances are 79% so then that means by my calcu...... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

P.S RM to win 2-0 if Cesc starts. Barca to win 3-1 if Villa plays. Barometer bazonka needle spinning mayhem heisenberg turning in grave if both Villa and Cesc play...