Liga fans (complement Madrid/Barca) like me are always contemptuously dismissive of morons saying Liga isn't too competitive, at least those morons who base this on no teams being capable of challenging the top 2 for the title. We repeat the "Liga starts at no.3" and evade the damning pathetic defeatism by happily pointing out RM/Barca would run away with the top 2 positions in any league (and though a Clasico final would have been a nice cherry to prove that point, the fact that it was popped by Chelsea/Munich in a knockout fixture proves nothing much). But the competitiveness of the league really comes to light when trying to predict results. This flowed into my g.reader a few hours after my liga table projections, and I thought it was an obvious and simple but quite nice thing to do, check % prediction accuracy and get others to do the same - especially if the same person does it across leagues, % variation could be used as an indicator of unpredictability of the league rather than just ignorance of the predictor. Of course I don't have the energy to predict fixtures from 2-3 leagues every single week, so I'll just do it this one time and mathematically induct the results to be true for all cases, especially now that I've started the post off with a neat 3-color squiggly graph which is just about arcane enough to need a second look for parameter comprehension.
On
the whole, the graph shows Liga to have the lowest point difference
slope once you remove the first 2 teams - that they're the most
competitive. EPL looks as mismatched overall as an F1 race with its
associated pointless battles here and there, barring a quite meaningless
10-14 squabble, and slightly less meaningless 15-18 curfuffle. Serie A
might have the highest average point difference from team 20 among the 3
leagues, but the slope of the graph right from 3 - 17 is almost as low
as Liga, evident from Novara, Cesena sealing relegation almost 3 weeks
back, and everyone else climbing over each other for position (mainly by
losing games from impossibly advantageous positions). On the strength
of this conclusion that EPL is far too obvious to bother wasting time
predicting (and the less important but disclosure obligatory "I know
diddly squat about EPL"), here's my Serie A Quiniela to check
predictability vs Liga (or my ignorance vs Liga)
| Home | Away | Result for Home Team |
| Lecce | Fiorentina | D - Hope Delio Rossi is happy now |
| AS Roma | Catania | W - God what a boring game this fixture was earlier |
| Siena | Parma | L - Hate to admit Giovinco, Biabiany have been \m/ |
| Atalanta | Lazio | L - Irritatingly efficient Lazio, on ascendancy lately |
| Bologna | Napoli | L - like duh |
| Novara | Cesena | D - but WHO CAAARREESSSSS |
| Palermo | Chievo Verona | D - both sliding down happily |
| Udinese | Genoa | W - byebye Genoa, Lecce to survive |
| Cagliari | Juventus | L - booyakasha chaammpiiioonnssss |
| Internazionale | AC Milan | W - day has come when I support Inter… |
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