Welcome to the section of the blog that justifies our status as IIMA grads. A statistical mushroom cloud that derives from an analytical chain reaction and covers the readership landscape with the indelible taste of Captain Obvious' armpit (the smell of which I would not be doing justice to if I failed to clarify that by "Mushroom Cloud" I mean a cloud in the shape of a mushroom, and not evaporated mushroom waiting to precipitate, although it would explain why they call it nai kodai...).
A few months back, I'd despondently resigned myself to another also-there Valencia in 3rd, and a league win for Madrid that not only bodes ill for an insufferable barrage of obnoxious trash talk from them, but also unfortunately upsets the status quo (of Barca players' superiority) threatening an ego clash within Furia Roja for the Euro. Now Madrid sit 7 points clear, while Valencia battle injury, a mediocre forward line, inconsistent performances from Costa and Ruiz, and the existence of Miguel (not that Barragan's been substantially better) - leading me to be quite ok for them to even slip into 4th place just to escape this damnable 3rd place limbo they are not good enough to climb above, and way too good to slip below. Just have to wait for Madrid and Barca to decimate their way through to the UCL Final (unless the draw plays spoilsport before that) for added support from rest of Europe to my desperate plea that these two be separated from society and be allowed to have their personal Mortal Kombat while Valencia proceeds to win the league year after year the way they deserve.
The wavelength of Barca's sine wave shows just how inconsistent they've been, not just with results but with goals scored, while Madrid are either consistently scrappy or consistently belligerent. Back in school, after any embarrassing UCL knockout for Madrid (of which there were enough..), a friend and RM fan, used to menacingly soothsay a ruthless annihilation of the team in the next liga fixture - it always happened, even coaches came out in interviews "fearing the Madrid backlash", wounded beast yadayada. But the game after that it used to be back to uninspiring for Madrid. Same story for Barca this time, bounce back flatteringly only to deceive in the next game. Captain Obvious Takeaway? Madrid consistently finding back of the net, Barca draw fail. 14mins of your life wasted going through that graph to hear something you could have got from the league table stats.
Comeback means winning every single game, and hoping Madrid lose atleast 2 (excluding the foregone loss to Barca conclusion), not unreasonable given Madrid's incredible first half? Unfortunately, compare their graph with last season, looks quite identical, from the results and points right down to the shape of the wave. Even worse news, their graph picks up over the 2nd half last season - reflecting also in the stats of Avg Goal difference 1.6 in H1 and 2.1 in H2. Capt Obv Takeaway 2? Madrid form way too superior to drop 7 points. 5mins of your life wasted comparing seasonal trends when you know they've only dropped 3 points in the last 16 games...
So with RM playing pretty much like last season, it means Barca have been crap this yr. The graph for last season H1 shows the kind of wavelength that has been missing this season. But enough about Fabregas... the graph also shows their consistency in goal difference across games (standard format threshold reached on the double meaning syntax?.... my otherrrr grandfaathhaaa.......Milton Jones FTW). More doom and gloom, Barca Goal Difference dipped from 2.6 in H1 to 1.1 in H2, so the odds are their performance is going to dip even further from now on. Capt Obv T/A - Barca to drop even more points in H2. 4mins wasted checking wave attributes when you know their focus has anyway shifted to the UCL, and Iniesta and Villa are injured. Fvcked.
Rider : Of course you might argue Barca's H2 dipped because they were already in control of the league, while RM were chasing it, meaning the opposite might be true this season about who has a better H2. Overall Takeaway : Barca may....or may not...stage a comeback....depends on whether they overcome...or don't overcome....a 7 point deficit....
The look on your face now as you realize Strat Consultants are paid so much more than you, and are quite probably much better looking too..... Timeless...
P.S quick preview on tonight's RM/Barca games - Sociedad drew Barca last time, not expecting the same tonight. Watching out for Carlos Vela controlling the MF on the fast break - assist for Agirretxe. 3-1 Barca. Getafe beat Barca earlier, and usually dominate their Madrid fixture - Barrada and Diego Castro have really caught my attention this season, hoping for them to rack up an assist for Miku and steal a 1-1 draw, but money's on them going 1-0 ahead and losing 1-4. Today's more about getting enough sleep to ensure wide awakeness for Roma-Inter and Atletico-Valencia tomorrow. fizzzz...that's the sound of my keyboard short circuiting from drool
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